Outlook for the global economy 2012

 The outlook for the global economy in 2012 is clear, but it isn’t pretty: recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. Asian economies are exposed to China. Latin America is exposed to lower commodity prices (as both China and the advanced economies slow). Central and Eastern Europe are exposed to the eurozone. And turmoil in the Middle East is causing serious economic risks – both there and elsewhere – as geopolitical risk remains high and thus high oil prices will constrain global growth.

 The world’s financial markets are on the brink, and 2012 could result in the global economy turning a corner — or crumbling, experts said on Saturday.

During a panel discussion at The Economist’s World in 2012festival, former U.S. Treasury secretary Robert Rubin, Morgan Stanley CFO Ruth Porat and Brookings Institute fellow Eswar Prasad agreed that 2012 would be the year that defines the path that the U.S., European Union and emerging economies for the next decade.

What they disagreed on was the likelihood of each option.

First, the United States. Rubin said he believes that there is “a material likelihood” of major government action on fiscal matters in the short period of time after the U.S. presidential election.

“If major action does occur, it is more than likely that it will be reasonably constructive in terms of mainstream agenda,” he said. “Though it is certainly possible it could be otherwise.”

The direct relationship between the success of business, citizens and politicians suggests that it’s more than likely that common ground for “fiscal rectitude” can be found, Rubin said.

Why? Rubin offered four reasons:

1. A bevy of events scheduled to occur at the end of 2012 and in early 2013 will be a major political and financial problem unless addressed, including the expiration of middle class tax cuts, sequestration, a possible payroll tax holiday and the reaching of the U.S. debt ceiling. If they all occur, the estimated fiscal demand will be reduced by four to five percent.
2. Continued economic duress could increase political pressure to act.
3. The 2012 election itself will produce impacts, “whatever they may be.”
4. A post-election period will increase political will to address the issues.

Decisions taken in the Summit Burssels Metting ; Europe moves ahead with fiscal union, UK isolated

Fri, Dec 9th, 2011 8:06 pm BdST

BRUSSELS, Dec 9 (bdnews24.com/Reuters) - Europe divided on Friday in a historic rift over building a closer fiscal union to preserve the euro, with an overwhelming majority of countries led by Germany and France agreeing to forge ahead with a separate treaty, leaving the EU's third biggest economy Britain isolated. The outcome of a two-day European Union summit left financial markets uncertain whether and when more decisive action would be taken to stem a debt crisis that began in Greece, spread to Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain and now threatens France and even economic powerhouse Germany. A new treaty could take three months to negotiate and may require referendums in some countries. Two ECB sources told Reuters the European Central Bank would keep purchases of euro zone government bonds capped for now and not take extra action. Debt markets were wary. Interbank lending rates eased but Italian 10-year bond yields remained around 6.5 percent. Twenty-six of the 27 EU leaders agreed to pursue tighter integration with stricter budget discipline in the single currency area, but Britain said it could not accept proposed EU treaty amendments after failing to secure concessions. After 10 hours of talks that ran into the early hours of Friday, all 17 members of the euro zone and nine countries that aspire to join resolved to negotiate a new agreement alongside the EU treaty with a tougher deficit and debt regime to avoid a repetition of the debt crisis in future. The nine non-euro states said they would consult their parliaments, where appropriate, on taking part in the process. After a long night of wrangling, Britain's few allies melted away in the Brussels dawn. "Not Europe, Brits divided. And they are outside of decision making. Europe is united," Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said in blunt English. One senior EU diplomat called British Prime Minister David Cameron's negotiating tactics "clumsy". Among other issues, he had sought a right to veto a proposed financial transaction tax, which may be voted through by a majority over the objections of the City of London financial centre. ECB President Mario Draghi called the decision a step forward for the stricter budget rules he has said are necessary for the euro zone to emerge stronger from the turmoil. "It's going to be the basis for a good fiscal compact and more discipline in economic policy in the euro area members," Draghi said. "We came to conclusions that will have to be fleshed out more in the coming days." Two ECB sources said the bank's governing council decided on Thursday to keep bond buying limited to around 20 billion euros a week and there was no need to review the decision in the light of the summit outcome. "You will see some further purchases but not the huge bazooka that some people in the markets and the media are awaiting," one central banker told Reuters on condition of anonymity. But French President Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters the ECB's move to provide unlimited three-year funds to cash-starved European banks would be more effective, by enabling them to continue buying government bonds. "This means that each state can turn to its banks, which will have liquidity at their disposal," he said. "SEETHES, SULKS, GLOATS" German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was satisfied with the decisions. The world would see that Europe had learned from its mistakes and avoided "lousy compromise", she said. Europe's most powerful leader said she had not given up hope that Britain would eventually agree to change the EU treaty to anchor stricter budget discipline, with automatic sanctions for deficit offenders. Sarkozy sounded elated at having united a big group around the euro zone as the EU's core, long a French objective. "This is a summit that will go down in history," he said. "We would have preferred a reform of the treaties among 27. That wasn't possible given the position of our British friends. And so it will be through an intergovernmental treaty of 17, but open to others." One EU diplomat summed up the outcome as: "Britain seethes, Germany sulks, and France gloats." Active ECB support will be vital in the coming days with markets doubting the strength of Europe's financial firewalls to protect vulnerable economies such as Italy and Spain, which have to roll over hundreds of billions of euros in debt next year. Irish Europe Minister Lucinda Creighton said Dublin and many other member states expect the central bank to take a more pro-active approach to the debt crisis in the weeks ahead. Traders said the ECB bought Italian bonds on Friday to steady markets. Creighton also said there was a 50/50 chance that Ireland would have to hold a referendum on ratifying a fiscal union treaty. Irish voters have rejected EU treaties twice in the last decade in plebiscites, holding up their entry into force, only to reverse their vote later under strong European pressure. Voters in any referendum this time will cast their ballots in the knowledge that Ireland is receiving an EU bailout, and that it will not be able to prevent other countries going ahead without it. The euro rallied in Europe but analysts said the summit had done little to convince markets that a solution to the crisis was at hand. Asked if the euro was safe now, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said: "I'm not sure." BRITAIN OUTSIDE? Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy had wanted to get the whole EU to agree to change the Lisbon treaty so that automatic sanctions to back budget and debt rules for eurozone states could be enshrined in the bloc's basic law. But Britain, which is outside the euro zone, refused to back the move, demanding guarantees in a protocol protecting its financial services industry, roughly one-tenth of the country's economy. Sarkozy described Cameron's demand as unacceptable. Cameron hinted London may now try to prevent the others from using the executive European Commission and the European Court of Justice, saying: "Clearly the institutions of the European Union belong to the European Union, they belong to the 27." The rift may increase pressure from Eurosceptics within Cameron's Conservative party and outside it for Britain to hold a referendum on leaving the EU, which it joined in 1973. The prime minister strongly opposes such a course, which he has said would be disastrous for British interests. Britain conducts more than half of its trade within the EU and would suffer economically if it lost its priviliged access to the single market. Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council and the summit chairman, focused on the success in securing agreement for tighter fiscal limits, including the need for countries to bring budgets close to balance. "It means reinforcing our rules on excessive deficit procedures by making them more automatic. It also means that member states would have to submit their draft budgetary plans to the (European) Commission," Van Rompuy said. "An inter-governmental treaty can be approved and ratified much more rapidly than a full-fledged treaty change, and I think speed is also very important to enhance credibility," he said. But it could still take months of wrangling, with countries like Finland and Slovakia opposing a Franco-German drive to take decisions on future bailouts by an 85 percent supermajority to avoid being taken hostage by a single small country.

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Meeting in Brussels EU Heads of State on Dec 9th

The EU Heads of State or Government will meet in Brussels on 8-9 December to discuss the economic situation in Europe. The European Council will also discuss energy issues and ways to promote growth. Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen will represent Finland at the meeting.

The European Council meeting will be prepared at the General Affairs Council convening in Brussels on 5 December. Minister for European Affairs and Foreign Trade Alexander Stubb will represent Finland at the General Affairs Council. Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja will attend the meeting when it is dealing with enlargement. In addition to preparatory work on the European Council, the General Affairs Council will discuss the proposal for the EU's multiannual financial framework 2014-2020 and EU enlargement on the basis of the annual enlargement package.

In line with the June and October European Councils, the December meeting will focus on economic growth and measures to support employment in the EU countries. Special attention will be paid to Internal Market sectors with the strongest growth potential, such as the Digital Single Market.