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ON THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS: THE VICTORY OF THE CONSERVATIVES : BETWEEN ECONOMIC CRISIS AND SEARCH FOR AN INTERNATIONAL ROLE

















BRUSSELS - Conservative forces won the European Parliament elections Sunday as socialist parties in Germany, France, Italy and Spain all failed to capitalize on the global financial crisis.
Preliminary results from TNS opinion, a pollster, credited the European People’s Party (EPP) with around 36 percent of the European Union vote.
The result was set to give them between 267 and 271 seats in the new and smaller 736-strong assembly and consolidate their status as the parliament’s biggest group since 1999.
“We are very happy. The EPP has gained an obvious victory,” said EPP leader Joseph Daul.
The second-largest group in parliament, the European Socialists (PSE), was projected to have won between 21 and 22 percent of the vote, down from 27.6 percent five years ago. This would give them between 157 and 161 seats.



PSE leader Martin Schulz called it “a bitter evening.”
“We had hoped for a better result,” said Schulz, who blamed the outcome on the poor performance of social-democratic parties in many EU countries, including his native Germany.
The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe was confirmed as the European Parliament’s third-largest group, with around 11 percent of the overall votes and between 80 and 82 seats.
And while many far-left parties failed to make headway, Europe’s Greens scored an impressive 7 percent of the overall vote, up from 5.5 percent five years ago.






The elections was marred by an all-time low in turnout rate, at just 43 percent.
But the result was seen as a boost for Jose Manuel Barroso, a Portuguese conservative who is vying for a second mandate as president of the European Commission. His current mandate expires in the Autumn.
In a statement, Barroso described the results as “an undeniable victory for those parties and candidates that support the European project and want to see the European Union delivering policy responses to their everyday concerns”.


The EPP’s victory came on the back of poor performances by mainstream leftwing parties in the EU’s biggest member states.
Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) - junior partners in the country’s left-right coalition government - were predicted to have gained a less-than-expected 21 percent.
By contrast, the ruling conservative alliance of Christian Democrats and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel, matched expectations with around 38 percent of the vote.
“It is a disappointing result, there is no other way of putting it,” said German Vice-Chancellor Frank-Walter Steinmeier of the SPD.


In France, voters handed the opposition Socialists a bitter setback, with exit polls showing the party had received only 17 percent of the vote, down from 28.9 perent five years ago, and less than the 20 percent they had been aiming for.
President Nicolas Sarkozy appeared to be the clear winner of the French vote, with his Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) gaining around 28 percent of the vote.
Like Sarkozy, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi also ducked an EU-wide trend of anti-government voting sparked by the EU’s worst recession since the World War II.
Projections suggested that Berlusconi’s conservative People of Freedom party would gain 35 per cent of the vote, despite a scandal involving his ambiguous friendship with an 18-year-old woman.
By contrast, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown was battling for survival after his governing Labour Party received a drubbing from David Cameron’s Conservative Party.
Governing parties also suffered reversals in, among others, Ireland, Greece and Finland.
In Spain, one of the European countries most affected by the global downturn, the conservative opposition People’s Party hammered the ruling Socialists of Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, gaining 42 per cent of the vote against the ruling party’s 38.6 percent, according to exit polls.

The election for the European Parliament also registered significant gains for far-right and eurosceptic movements in a number of member states - including Austria, Denmark, Hungary and the Netherlands. In Britain, the xenophobic British National Party (BNP) won its first seat to the European Parliament.
But arguably the biggest winner of the European election was voters’ apathy, with turnout dropping from its peak of 62 percent in 1979 - the first year in which Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) were directly elected - to around 43 percent this year. Turnout was 45.5 percent in 2004.
Outgoing European Parliament President Hans-Gert Poettering blamed voters’ apathy on the media, which he accused of ignoring the works of the EU’s only directly-elected body at a time in which it is gaining more and more powers.




Conservatives scored victories in some of Europe’s largest economies Sunday as voters punished left-leaning parties in European parliament elections in France, Germany and other nations.
Some right-leaning parties said the results vindicated their reluctance to spend more on company bailouts and fiscal stimulus to combat the global economic crisis.
The European Union said center-right parties were expected to take the most seats — 267 — in the 736-member parliament. Center-left parties were headed for 159 seats. The remainder were expected to go to smaller groupings.
Right-leaning governments were ahead of the opposition in Germany, France, Italy and Belgium, while conservative opposition parties were leading in Britain and Spain.
Greece was a notable exception, where the governing conservatives were headed for defeat in the wake of corruption scandals and economic woes.
Germans handed a lackluster victory to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and a historic defeat to their center-left rivals in the European Parliament vote months before a national election.
The Social Democrats got an unexpectedly dismal 20.8 percent — the party’s worst showing since World War II in any nationwide election.
Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and a regional sister party won 37.8 percent, down from 44.5 percent five years ago. But the outcome was enough to boost Merkel’s hopes of ending the tense left-right “grand coalition” that has led the European Union’s most populous nation since 2005, and replacing it with a center-right government.
“We are the force that is acting level-headedly and correctly in this financial and economic crisis,” said Volker Kauder, the leader of Merkel’s party in the German parliament.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s governing conservatives trounced the Socialists, while an ecology-minded party vaulted to a surprisingly strong third place, according to official results.
The Socialists, who dominated the last vote in 2004, suffered a stinging defeat, barely clinging to the No. 2 spot.
“Tonight is a very difficult evening for Socialists in many nations in Europe,” said Martin Schulz, the leader of the Socialists in the European Parliament. “(We will) continue to fight for social democracy in Europe.”
Far-right groups and other fringe parties gained in record low turnout estimated at 43.5 percent of 375 million eligible, reflecting widespread disenchantment with the continentwide legislature.
Britain elected its first extreme-right politician to the European Parliament, with the British National Party winning a seat in northern England’s Yorkshire and the Humber district.
The far-right party, which does not accept nonwhites as members, was expected to possibly win further seats as more results in Britain were announced.
Lawmakers with Britain’s major political parties said the far right’s advance was a reflection of anger over immigration issues and the recession that is causing unemployment to soar.
Near-final results showed Austria’s main rightist party gaining strongly while the ruling Social Democrats lost substantial ground. But the big winner was the rightist Freedom Party, which more than doubled its strength over the 2004 elections to 13.1 percent of the vote. It campaigned on an anti-Islam platform.
In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ anti-Islamic party took 17 percent of the country’s votes, taking four of 25 seats.
The Hungarian far-right Jobbik party won three of 22 seats, with the main center-right opposition party, Fidesz, capturing 14 seats and the governing Socialists only four.
Jobbik describes itself as Euro-skeptic and anti-immigration and wants police to crack down on petty crimes committed by Gypsies. Critics say the party is racist and anti-Semitic.
Fringe groups could use the EU parliament as a platform for their extreme views but were not expected to affect the assembly’s increasingly influential lawmaking on issues ranging from climate change to cell-phone roaming charges.
The EU parliament has evolved over five decades from a consultative legislature to one with the power to vote on or amend two-thirds of all EU laws. Lawmakers get five-year terms and residents vote for lawmakers from their own countries.
The parliament can also amend the EU budget — €120 billion ($170 billion) this year — and approves candidates for the European Commission, the EU administration and the board of the European Central Bank.
Many Socialists ran campaigns that slammed center-right leaders for failing to rein in financial markets and spend enough to stimulate faltering economies.
“People don’t want a return to socialism and that’s why the majority here will be a center-right majority,” said Graham Watson, leader of the EU’s center-right Liberal Democrat grouping.
In Spain, the conservative Popular Party won two more seats than the ruling Socialists — 23 to 21 seats — with over 88 percent of the vote counted.
Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi’s Freedom People’s Party held a two-digit lead over his main center-left rival in the most recent polling despite a deep recession and a scandal over allegations he had an inappropriate relationship with a young model. Italian results were being released Monday.
In Britain, Prime Minister Gordon Brown was facing a showdown with rebel lawmakers on Monday after the party’s expected dismal results in the European parliament and local elections were announced.
Brown has been struggling with the economic crisis and a scandal over lawmakers’ expenses. The opposition Conservatives are expected to win the next national election, which must be called by June 2010.
According to a BBC projection, Labour was trailing the United Kingdom Independence Party in third place. It put the main opposition Conservative Party at 27 percent, UKIP at 17 and Labour at 16, followed by smaller parties.
“This time we have come second in a major national election. That is a hell of an achievement,” said Nigel Farage, leader of UKIP — which advocates Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union.
An exit poll showed Irish ruling party Fianna Fail, which supports EU plans to strengthen its authority, trailing its rival Fine Gael by 23 percent to 30 percent.
The outcome of many Irish races was unclear early Monday. The count was halted for an hour Sunday night in Ireland’s North West EU constituency after candidate Declan Ganley, founder of anti-treaty party Libertas, raised procedural questions about the opening of ballot boxes.
An exit poll in Poland showed Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-business Civic Platform party with 45.3 percent and the nationalist and conservative opposition Law and Justice party second with 29.5 percent — a shift to the center-right for Poland at the European parliament.
The Democratic Left Alliance-Labor Union garnered 12 percent.
In Sweden, the Pirate Party, which advocates shortening the duration of copyright protection and allowing noncommercial file-sharing, looked set to take its first seat with 7.4 percent of the vote.
Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands and five other EU nations cast ballots over the last three days, while the rest of the 27-nation bloc voted Sunday.
Associated Press writers Geir Moulson and Patrick McGroarty in Berlin, Angela Charlton in Paris, Harold Heckle in Madrid, Raphael Satter and David Stringer in London, Constant Brand in Brussels, Pablo Gorondi in Budapest, Hungary, Ryan Lucas in Warsaw, George Jahn in Vienna, Derek Gatopoulos and Elena Becatoros in Athens, Barry Hatton in Lisbon, Alison Mutler in Bucarest, Romania, Keith Moore and Malin Rising in Stockholm and Veselin Toshkov in Sofia, Bulgaria, contributed to this report.






ANALYSIS THE MEANING





The two-month period opened with an informal summit that the European leaders held in Brussels on 1st March on the financial crisis in view of April's G-20. And a signal soon came from the leading Spanish daily, "El País", which on the one hand spoke of the great enthusiasm with which Zapatero had spoken of the emergence of a "common European government against the crisis", saying he was convinced that from this there might come a strengthening of the EU, and, on the other, pointed out that neither Balkenende, nor Sarkozy, nor the President of Commission Barroso, nor the Czech presidency, had gone into any detail on the idea of the "common government" (1). An insignificant detail? Perhaps. But that put alongside others conveys the impression of a growing split between public opinion and the Socialist government.




On the eve of the EU-US summit
The expectations for Obama's first trip to Europe, for the London G-20 and the EU-US summit in Prague, have led us to ponder on the different approaches to the crisis. Faced with a White House that was insisting on further projects for stimulating the economy, we have seen the annoyance with which the European Commission, unwilling to launch new intervention plans, perceived Obama's pressure in that direction (2). All of this while "El País" was echoing the alarmed voices of Colombani and Fischer on the EU's situation. The ex-director of "Le Monde" was critical of the decision taken by the Twenty-seven in Brussels not to enforce the aid plan for the Member Countries from the Eastern Europe, in particular Poland and Hungary. A choice that Colombani thought was destined to divide Europe with a new Iron Curtain, twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall. He drew inspiration from this to stigmatise to EU's fragility and the increased weight of the nationalist inclinations of France, Germany and Great Britain. He was also afraid that, after showing its weaknesses vis-à-vis Russia at the time of the gas war, the EU could end up fostering a realignment of the ex-Soviet satellite countries to Russia, all to Europe's detriment. A further threat came from the populist currents, which could jeopardise the EU's cohesion. He concluded by hoping there might be an initiative of the European governments before it was too late (3).

Converging with Colombani's was the analysis of the German ex-Foreign Minister. Fischer opposed to the choice of change accomplished by the USA with Obama, with the return of Europe to a protectionist past and national narrow-mindedness. Faced with the worsening in the economic situation he claimed to be convinced that the Euro and the European Central Bank were unable, by themselves, to defend European integration and the common market and that only a common economic and financial policy could cope with it. Thence the belief in the need for the strong economies, like the German one, should decidedly intervene in support of those countries at risk in the Europe zone, in order to avert the devastating effects for the EU of a collapse of the single currency. Instead, in his opinion both Germany and France seemed firmly rooted to their own interests .




Spain on the international level
The feature article by M. Martín Ferrand in "ABC" actually seemed sarcastic, on the day of the London G-20 summit, according to whom Zapatero had gone "with the devotion and trust of a cripple who hopes to solve his own problems at Lourdes" (5). The same newspaper then underlined the differences in Obama's approach to the crisis as compared with that of the EU, insisting on the "No's" that Obama had had to accept by the end of the summit: no to more public investment, to more soldiers in Afghanistan and Turkey's EU membership, a cause that the United States President had pleaded even going a bit above board (6).
The music has not changed with the second Forum of the Alliance between Civilisations (launched by Zapatero in his speech to the United Nations on 21st September 2004), which was held at Istanbul on 6th - 7th April. In Obama's non-participation, first announced and then resolved with a fleeting presence at the inaugural reception, "ABC" indeed saw the umpteenth confirmation of the far-fetched nature of the initiative.


Even minimising the significant participation of the new NATO Secretary General, Rasmussen, and the chance that the Forum offers to enable Spain, for a long time the promoter of Turkey's EU membership, to make headway in this direction. On the other hand, an editorial of "ABC" pointed out that no European country had shown any interest in the initiative; then that the Alliance had been whittled down to what was a practically bilateral project between Turkey and Spain. A project that, recalling in this regard the Turkish Professor Soner Cagaptay, even ran the risk of jeopardising Turkey's EU membership, exactly because it was founded on the idea that Spain and Turkey represent two different civilisations.

From here we get the attack: while the alliances are established by definition with those with whom there are things in common, the Zapatero project presupposes quite the opposite, first establishing the participants, and then to try to look for sharable values. Hence the conclusion that the "Alliance of Civilisations" is no more than the quintessence of relativism, the receptacle of all the political and moral expressions in the name of equality, animated by a government, such as the Spanish one, without solid values to rest upon








The European elections on 7th June
The approaching date of the elections for the new European Parliament has seen some anxious comments being made. The economic crisis and the reservations on the Community measures to deal with its are often related to the drop in Spanish pro-European tension and this with the forecast of a poor turnout at the polls on 7th June. The data of the latest Eurobarometer made public in mid-April are confirmation of this.
Depoliticised, conservative, leaderless, closed within different identities: that's what the European appear like a few weeks from the European Parliament election vote, in the eyes of L. Bassets in the "El País" feature article. "Apart from a few rare exceptions" - he adds - "the Parties normally send people to Europe that they want to dump politically: this is shown by the lists of the PP and the PSOE in Spain, for which the electors' punishment is expected. Comparing Europe with the United States is a must. Will it be true, wonders Bassets, that Europe falls back on itself while America takes off? In his opinion the USA are becoming Europeanised and Europe is becoming Americanised:

Obama represents a mixed race country that is putting itself as a leader of the mixed race world: there the elections stir up passion, here they don't. It seems as though Europe is playing the role of the double, committed to closing itself inside its national identities, while on the other side of the Atlantic there is an opening to the world never before seen (8). V. Puig in "ABC" starts, on his part, from the Spaniards' scarce attention to European processes, the structural defects and the virtues of the latter. He says that there is rarely talk of what happens in Europe, if not when Berlusconi makes his gaffes or Sarkozy acts like he wants to "Bonapartise" the Fifth Republic. He anticipates that at the June elections there will be a useful vote, one of punishment, anti-political and a lot of abstention. He recalls that in 2004 abstention at the European elections reached 54% and that this time no one thinks it will be any lower.

He also anticipates that from the polls the Eurosceptic parties will emerge stronger, like the Irish Libertas, one of the leading groups responsible for the Irish No to the Lisbon Treaty, now searching for allies in Europe, from Alternativa Española to the Catholic fundamentalists and the Polish agro-nationalists, to set up a pan-European formation (9).

Also showing concern over the data of the Eurobarometer is the comment of the "El País" Brussels correspondent, Andreu Missé, according to whom the economic crisis and the answer given by the EU will weigh upon the upcoming European elections.

The malaise is also reflected in the loss of confidence in the community institutions, from the Commission to the European Central Bank. Eurobarometer says that confidence in the ECB has collapsed from 48% to 39% in one year, that in the Commission from 47% to 42%, and the figures get even worse in countries like the United Kingdom, Austria and Greece.

The same survey indicates that only 34% of the citizens will definitely go to vote. The reason lies in the fact that the interest in European affairs is tapering away and the membership of the new countries certainly did not help the turnout at the last elections.

The crisis has above all hit the Eastern European countries and Euroscepticism is regaining strength.

The answers collected by the survey show, continues Missé, a clear-cut shift in interest away from issues such as terrorism, climate and immigration, towards unemployment and economic growth, while the competencies of the European institutions, identity and values now only interest a paltry 10%.

The reasons why the citizens are not going to vote can above all be traced back to the lack of information and knowledge, but also the distrust, which however is not anti-Europeanism, he points out, as only 20% claim to be against the process of European unification



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