Colombia's presidential elections

Ex-defense minister dominates Colombia presidential vote, faces Green Party outsider in runoff

Conservative Uribe ally dominates Colombia vote

BOGOTA, Colombia — A conservative former defense minister closely associated with Alvaro Uribe’s security gains easily defeated a maverick outsider in presidential elections on Sunday but fell short of the votes needed to avoid a runoff.

Juan Manuel Santos, who vows to keep up the pressure on leftist rebels that fed President Uribe’s popularity, won 47 percent support in a field of nine candidates. Antanas Mockus, a former two-time Bogota mayor who ran an unorthodox clean-government campaign and promised to raise taxes, got 21 percent.

Government-candidate Juan Manuel Santos received the support of 66.5% of people surveyed on who they would vote for in the June 20 runoff of Colombia's presidential elections. His opponent Antanas Mockus received 27.4% of the interviewees' support.

The latest poll, organized by several of the country's national media, shows a slight expansion of Santos' lead compared to a poll held last week and a major difference compared to polls held before the first round of the elections when three out of four pollsters estimated Mockus had most chances in the second round.

The two presidential hopefuls met on Thursday, ten days before the elections, for a debate organized by El Tiempo, Colombia's leading newspaper with ties to the Santos family.

Partido de la U candidate Juan Manuel Santos is a Colombian politician, journalist and economist, who comes from one of Colombia's most influential family dynasties. He is the great-nephew of former Colombian President Eduardo Santos, who was the owner of newspaper El Tiempo, and grandson of journalist Eduardo Santos. He is also the cousin of current Vice President Francisco Santos.

Born: August 10, 1951 in Bogota D.C.

Education:

• Degree in Economics and Business Administration from the University of Kansas
• Masters in Economics, Economic Development and Public Administration from the London School of Economics
• Masters in Public Administration and Journalism from Harvard University
• Masters in Law and Diplomacy from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy

Political Party: Partido de la U

Vice Presidential candidate: Angelino Garzon

Most recent position: Colombian Defense Minister

Partido de la U's presidential candidate Juan Manuel Santos leads a coalition established to back Uribe. With Uribe unable to run for a third term, Santos is the obvious choice to carry on with Uribe's agenda. While officially Uribe can not endorse any candidate, unofficially it is clear that Uribe has given Santos the nod. Critics accuse Santos of being Uribe's puppet, who will continue to carry out Uribe's agenda if elected.

As defense minister, Santos led a series of lethal and effective military operations against the FARC. In his campaign for the presidency he relies on Colombia's advances against the FARC under his leadership, to argue that he is the best candidate to carry on with Uribe's democratic security policy.

"Juan Manuel Santos is a cyborg programmed from a young age to be president," jokes Colombian political analysis website La Silla Vacia. "Juan Manuel Santos wants to be the heir to the president who acted like an alpha male, and is proud to be so. In this campaign Juan Manuel Santos has power in all forms on his side: direct access to the most important newspaper [El Tiempo]... the support of economic power and of the most powerful man in Colombia," the website comments.

Platform

"Not one step back in diplomatic security, five steps forward in democratic prosperity" is the catchphrase Santos uses to describe his policies, which he refers to by using the names of some of his most successful military operations during his time as defense minister:

• Operacion Jacque to fight unemployment
• Operation Fenix against poverty
• Respect for good governance
• Improved health, education and justice services
• Investment in science and technology

Position on the conflict

As defense minister under Uribe, Santos was the executor of the president's democratic security policy, which focuses in part on dismantling the FARC militarily. As a result, he has detailed knowledge of the guerrilla organization.

During his time as defense minister, Santos oversaw numerous military operations, including "Operation Fenix" - a raid on a guerrilla camp 1.8 kilometers over the Ecuadorean border, which led to 26 deaths, including FARC leader "Raul Reyes" and an Ecuadorean citizen. Ecuador filed charges against Santos for his role in the operation. The incident showed the lengths Santos was prepared to go to, such as undermining another nation's sovereignty, in order to bring down the FARC. Santos has argued that Colombia's actions were in self-defense against the FARC.

Despite Santos' hard-line stance on the FARC as defense minister, he has said that the doors to a peace negotiation with the FARC remain open, if the guerrilla organization "in good faith" desists from engaging in terrorism.

Foreign Policy

As defense minister Santos clashed with both Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez and Ecuador's Rafael Correa, Chavez labelling Santos "an enemy of Venezuela." Santos rocky relations with the two nations have led to concerns over how he would deal with aggression from neighboring countries, Venezuela in particular.

Santos has stated that although he and Chavez are like "water and oil", as president he would do his best to maintain friendly relations with the socialist nation.

In a live debate between presidential candidates, Santos said he was "proud" of Colombia's 2008 attack against the FARC on Ecuadorean territory and added that Colombia must "continue to fight terrorists, wherever they may be."

In terms of policy Santos pledges to

• Reform Colombia's foreign ministry in order to strengthen the nation's international relations
• Work closely with the International Court of Justice and the International Human Rights Courts
• Resolve problems along Colombia's borders
• Seek trade relations with Asia

Antanas Mockus
The son of Lithuanian immigrants, Antanas Mockus is a Colombian mathematician, philosopher and politician. After serving as rector at Bogota's Universidad Nacional, Mockus went on to become mayor of Bogota twice. He is renowned for his eccentric, outside the box thinking, which has led him to perform some unusual but thought-provoking stunts.

Education:

• Masters in Philosophy from the Universidad Nacional de Colombia
• Mathematics Degree from the University of Dijon, France
• Honorary PhD from the University of Paris XIII, France

Political Party: The Green Party

Vice Presidential candidate: Sergio Fajardo

Most recent position: Colombian senator

Policy

2010 campaign slogan: "Con educacion todo se puede" - With education, everything is possible

Antanas Mockus believes that ideas win votes. And the Green Party presidential candidate is very creative in how he expresses his ideas. Colombian political analysis website La Silla Vacia compares him to Spanish artist Salvador Dali. "Like the surrealist artist, Mockus, through the symbols he uses, establishes an emotional connection with an audience, so even if they don't understand his words, they understand his message." Mockus himself expressed a similar sentiment in an academic article he wrote, commenting that "When words run out, what's left is art." In Mockus' case, art is politics.

Mockus is best known in Colombia for his wacky stunts. But will Colombia understand and embrace the, at times, very abstract ideas behind such stunts? Critics fear democratic security would flounder under self-proclaimed pacifist Mockus' leadership, with Uribe himself blaming a 2002 FARC attack in the capital on the then-Bogota mayor. La Silla Vacia recounts how, when faced with FARC death threats during his time as mayor, Mockus did not respond with violence or shows of force. Instead he began to wear a jacket with a heart-shaped hole cut out over his left breast. In doing so he demonstrated how absurd it would be to attack a person who refused to defend himself.

With such stunts during his time as Bogota mayor, Mockus showed that there is an alternative path Colombia could take to deal with its internal conflict. However, even if Mockus does manage to win over the people with his "Mockucratics," analysts suggest his Achilles heel may be winning over Colombian Congress, to pass his reforms.

Platform

Mockus' platform is based on the ideas of the "Visionaries for Colombia" movement, which rejects the concept that it doesn't matter how change is achieved, as long as it is achieved. Mockus believes that this attitude has led to a culture of violence and corruption in Colombia. For him, how change is instituted is fundamental, and he seeks "change without violence, supported by respected institutions and citizens who believe in the fulfillment of social norms and laws."

• Complete respect for life
• Stop taking "short cuts" - greater cohesion between means and ends
• Coherence between laws, norms and customs: "When the state has not earned the respect of citizens, it is easy to create norms or practices that are socially accepted but legally and morally unacceptable. In order to restore respect for laws and norms, customs need to have moral implications."
• Greater equality in education
• Respect for the justice system

Despite critics' insinuations that Mockus is unequipped to deal with the FARC and security issues, the Green Party candidate maintains that the guerrilla organization must be "cornered and finished." Mockus agrees with Uribe's stance that a dialogue with the FARC is not possible whilst the guerrillas continue to engage in kidnapping. He is opposed to a humanitarian exchange under the current circumstances.

During Mockus' second term as Bogota mayor, the city experienced some of the worst terrorist attacks in its history. While Mockus agreed with Uribe that the state needs to regain its authority, he disagreed with Uribe's formation of a network of paid informants to combat terrorists. "It is impossible for the state to compete with the funds of these armed groups and drug traffickers. They can always offer more. The state must compete with and for its legitimacy," Mockus said. This statement sums up his stance on the conflict - that the FARC must be fought within the law and with citizen support.

Foreign policy

In a recent live debate Mockus said that he would never pursue the FARC onto another nation's sovereign territory, as Partido de la U's candidate Juan Manuel Santos did in Ecuador, during his time as defense minister.

In terms of Colombia's rocky relations with Venezuela, Mockus has a called for a bilateral solution that would "respect the Venezuelan process and be carried out through institutions."

Mockus' overarching foreign policy is one "governed by the constitution, respectful of human rights and international agreements and which prioritizes regional relations, especially with neighboring countries."

Santos won with a huge difference (47% vs 21%, almost 7 million votes against little more than 3 million votes). While a Santos' victory in the first round was expected, such a difference shocked everyone. Moreover, Santos won in every state of the country but one, and also in the three main cities (Bogotá, Cali, Medellín) where Mockus was supposed to be fairly strong.
Since Santos didn't manage to obtain more than 50% of the votes, there will be a second round elections (aka ballotage). It is clear that Mockus holds absolutely no chance in that round, especially because all other candidates but one, explicitly or implicitly, have adhered to Santos' campaign. So Santos will win, most likely with a larger difference. It is expected that less people will go to vote on June 20, either because they consider the elections are already settled (and hence their vote would make no difference)